Broken windows all the way down

Недавно Пол Кругман съездил в Японию. Там, следуя его гениальным советам, пытаются запустить заржавевшую экономическую машину. В сети есть транскрипт его встречи с членами японского кабинета: Paul Krugman: Meeting with Japanese officials, 22/3/16 [PDF].

Увлекательнейшее чтение! Прямо как заглянул в зазеркалье. Кругман в любимой позе на бороневичке учить остальных как им тратить деньги. Весь документ полон перлов от нобелевского лауреата, даже сложно выбрать. Самые сочные:

Война - двигатель прогресса:

The important point about the war from the macroeconomic point of view is that it was a very large fiscal stimulus. That fact that it was a war is very unfortunate. It was simply something that led to a fiscal stimulus that would not otherwise have happened. In fact, the story in the 1930’s was that the New Deal, Roosevelt backed off the fiscal stimulus in 1937, because then, as now, there were many calls for balancing the budget. That was a terrible mistake. It caused the major second recession.

В Европе экономика страдает в том числе и от того, что проблемы с беженцами слишком дешево обходятся:

(PM Abe)
For example, Germany, because of the refugee question, investment, for example, housing investment for refugees or educational investment for refugees, do you think that would be effective in terms of fiscal policy?

(Prof. Krugman)
Yes, it is a stimulus. I think if you actually cost it out, it is not very large. The refugee issue creates enormous tension because of social fears but if we can say, though strange way to put it, taking care of the refugees does not actually cost enough to be a major fiscal stimulus. It is not trivial but it is not that big. When we were looking at it, I know that President Hollande was speaking about we should lift the fiscal restraints in order to deal with this crisis. For a moment we are all kind of excited saying this is the end of austerity but the numbers just did not seem to be big enough to actually be a really major departure. If you are looking for the fiscal equivalent of war, it is not that. It is tremendous social political strain but not in fact that much money.

Как обычно, людишки подкачали. Не понимают всей важности исторического момента. Живут, понимаешь, в другой интеллектуальной вселенной.

(Male 1)
Regarding fiscal stimulus measures, I think there are some G7 countries which have enough policy space for fiscal stimulus, like Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom. But as you alluded, none of them are likely to implement significant stimulus measures in coming months. How do you think we should argue for further stimulus measures in those countries with enough fiscal space?

(Prof. Krugman)
It is very difficult to make the argument. In the case of Germany, they simply live in a different intellectual universe, very difficult to talk about this. In the case of the United States, I assure you that President Obama favors increased infrastructure spending. In fact I can actually say that there was one meeting of economists which he opened by saying, “I want to hear your ideas. Don’t tell me we should spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure. I know that, I can’t get it through congress”. So, the US has that problem.
[...]
If we are going to say which members of the G7 are really able to move effectively and seem to be clear-headed, at the moment it would be basically, I think, Japan and Canada. We have excellent leadership at the top of the United States but then we have a crazy congress, so it makes life difficult.

Вообще же глядя на то как экономисты рассуждают об экономическом росте напоминает мне библйские истории. Чтоб земля плодоносила и дожди шли надо приности в жертву красную корову, которая очистит экономику от нечистоты мёртвых денег, запрятанных в матрасы. Только священный дым сожжёных ассигнаций а.к.а. стимулуса будет приятен суровому божеству.